Environment Agency – Flood Incident Summary Sheet 22/02/2024 3pm

Please find attached the Flood Summary Sheet for Shropshire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire, and Gloucestershire from the Environment Agency

The Flood Guidance Statement is currently green for Shropshire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire, and Gloucestershire for the next 5 days.

Weather Summary
Over the last 24 hours we have seen a widespread 10-15mm with isolated maximums up to 25mm over the western borders. The heavy band of frontal rainfall that fell early this morning has largely cleared to the east, with moderate showers expected across the area for the rest of today. Rainfall totals for today are expected to be widespread 5-10mm, with isolated maximums of up to 20mm in the upper catchments.

Friday will see a continuation of the blustery showers moving across the area from the west, but with lower totals than today. We are expecting a widespread 2-3mm, with isolated maximums of up to 10mm for the upper catchments.

Saturday will see continued showers much the same as Friday, with similar rainfall totals. Sunday will see a new frontal system move in from the south-west by mid-morning, clearing to the east into the evening. Rainfall totals from this system are currently highly uncertain, as is the exact track of the heaviest rainfall. The coming days will bring more certainty to the forecast. Next week will see a return to drier weather from Sunday night onwards with high pressure moving in, we are expecting Monday and Tuesday to be dry currently.

Operational activity
1. Frankwell Phase 1 will be deployed tomorrow.
2. Bewdley Severn Side North Phase 1 deployed. Phase 2 loaded ready if needed.
3. Kempsey pumping station is pumping. Contingency pumps on site.
4. Upton-upon-Severn New Street and waterside gates remain closed. Dunns lane gate open.
For the remaining barrier sites, we are closely monitoring the situation and we will update you if the situation changes.

Fluvial summary
Levels are now rising again on the Lugg & Wye after dropping slightly this morning from last night’s first peak. Levels are still rising on the Upper Severn and this will work downstream over the coming days. The Teme, Lower Avon, and Lower Severn also rose this morning. Levels on the Lower Severn will remain elevated well into the weekend.

By the weekend tides are starting to build again. We are not currently expecting any tidal alerts for the Estuary but potentially some for Sandhurst and Gloucester by the weekend due to high fluvial level/tidal interaction.

We are closely monitoring the situation.

Environment Agency – Flood Incident Summary Sheet 22/02/2024 10am

Thursday band of heavy rain moving in from the west in the early hours, followed by blustery showers, however there is uncertainty in the details of this rain following – whether it will be showers or be a broader area of rain, so low confidence in the scenarios – a lot of continued variation between model runs (10-15mm average, max 35mm). Thursday morning, we may need to issue some alerts for flashy tribs in Worcestershire/Gloucestershire.

Friday and Saturday blustery and showery, but a bit more isolated by Saturday (1-5mm, max 15mm in West both days).

Sunday frontal system bringing more rain to the south, but very low confidence in the details at this stage (RWC has 10-15mm, max 25-35mm).

6-10 day outlook suggests the start of next week may see a couple of dry days, but more rain by midweek.

Operational activity

  1. Bewdley Severn Side North phase 1 deployed
  2. Kempsey pumping station is pumping.

For the remaining barrier sites, we are closely monitoring the situation and we will update you if the situation changes.

Fluvial summary

The catchment is responding to rainfall over the past 48 hours and a new set of peaks are building in the Upper Reaches of the Severn, Vyrnwy, Wye and Avon. Following the forecast rainfall from today, we will potentially see some re-rises on many watercourses during Thursday and Friday. In the best estimate scenario, the upper catchments will largely return to flood alert levels but with the Lower Severn still experiencing high river levels this may keep this section of the river above flood warning level for the rest of this week.


Tides remain low but are beginning to build in to the weekend.

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