Flood Summary Sheet for Shropshire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire 13/02/24

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Please see a summary of the latest situation below and attached. This will be the last summary sheet to be issued for this incident. We will monitor the latest  weather and flooding situation closely and will reissue the summary sheet where required

Summary

The forecast remains unsettled over the next 5 days with further frontal systems bringing rainfall across the patch. A warm front pushes through this morning bringing showery outbreaks of rainfall continuing into Wednesday. This will be followed quickly by another frontal system bringing heavy rainfall to the western parts however depending on the development of this system, larger rainfall totals may be experienced more widely across the country. This feature is set to clear overnight into Friday. Some drier weather during Friday will give way to the next band of potentially heavy and persistent rainfall arriving Saturday afternoon. Confidence in the set up is currently low. Rainfall totals for the upper catchments are expected to be 10-20mm per day for today and tomorrow. The Reasonable Worst Case could see up to 35mm at the top of the River Severn on Wednesday. For Thursday there is potential for widespread 10-25mm across the whole patch, with reasonable worst case totals pushing up to 40mm. Rainfall on Friday and Saturday is currently showing totals with less than 10mm per day. The Flood Guidance Statement remains escalated with high likelihood on minor impacts for the Worcestershire and Gloucestershire Severn for today and tomorrow due to previous high river levels and tidal impacts. For Thursday’s rainfall low likelihood of minor impacts has been flagged across the whole of your patch.

Operational activity

  1. Frankwell was removed yesterday (Monday 12/02/24)
  2. Bewdley Severn Side North phase 1 deployed
  3. Upton on Severn (Saxons) New Street, Waterside, gates are closed. Dunns Lane will be reopened today (Tuesday 13/02/24),
  4. Mobile pumps have been deployed at Powick, Upton, and Alney Island to ensure surface water behind defences is managed.
  5. Kempsey pumping station is pumping, but due to increased debris levels the penstock has been closed.
  6. For the remaining barrier sites, we are closely monitoring the situation and we will update you if the situation changes.

Fluvial summary

The Severn has peaked upstream of Haw Bridge. All watercourses have largely peaked and are receding with the fluvial peak now passing through the tidal section. Following the forecast rainfall from today, we will potentially see some re-rises on many watercourses during Thursday and Friday. In the best estimate scenario, the upper catchments will largely return to flood alert levels but with the Lower Severn still experiencing high river levels this may keep this section of the river above flood warning level for the rest of this week. Operationally, continued activities will be required at Kempsey and Saxons Lode. There is a chance in the reasonable worst case scenario that Frankwell Phase 1 (Shrewsbury) threshold will be crossed from Friday, depending on the influence of Hayes Basin.

Tides

Spring tides have now peaked, and whilst tidal levels remain high today they should start to drop away quickly over the next few days.

This will be the last summary sheet for this flood incident. We will monitor the latest  weather and flooding situation closely and will reissue the summary sheet where required.

Attachments