Environment Agency – Flood Incident Summary Sheet 22/02/2024 10am

Thursday band of heavy rain moving in from the west in the early hours, followed by blustery showers, however there is uncertainty in the details of this rain following – whether it will be showers or be a broader area of rain, so low confidence in the scenarios – a lot of continued variation between model runs (10-15mm average, max 35mm). Thursday morning, we may need to issue some alerts for flashy tribs in Worcestershire/Gloucestershire.

Friday and Saturday blustery and showery, but a bit more isolated by Saturday (1-5mm, max 15mm in West both days).

Sunday frontal system bringing more rain to the south, but very low confidence in the details at this stage (RWC has 10-15mm, max 25-35mm).

6-10 day outlook suggests the start of next week may see a couple of dry days, but more rain by midweek.

Operational activity

1. Bewdley Severn Side North phase 1 deployed
2. Kempsey pumping station is pumping.

For the remaining barrier sites, we are closely monitoring the situation and we will update you if the situation changes.

Fluvial summary

The catchment is responding to rainfall over the past 48 hours and a new set of peaks are building in the Upper Reaches of the Severn, Vyrnwy, Wye and Avon. Following the forecast rainfall from today, we will potentially see some re-rises on many watercourses during Thursday and Friday. In the best estimate scenario, the upper catchments will largely return to flood alert levels but with the Lower Severn still experiencing high river levels this may keep this section of the river above flood warning level for the rest of this week.

Tides

Tides remain low but are beginning to build in to the weekend.

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